ENTER EROGLU

SADLY the words Cyprus and conflict seem inextricably linked. The island has been divided for over 35 years despite many rounds of settlement talks. So the election on April 18th 2010 of a hard-line Turkish-Cypriot president, Dervish Eroglu, might look like just another episode in a never-ending saga.

Yet, even by Cyprus’s dismal standards, the repercussions of Mr. Eroglu’s victory are serious (see article). He has ousted Mehmet Ali Talat, the most pro-settlement leader the Turkish-Cypriots have had. Mr. Eroglu is against the idea of a “bizonal, bicommunal federation”, which has been the basis of all Cyprus talks since 1977. He barely knows the Greek-Cypriot president, Demetris Christofias, and speaks almost no English. In contrast, Mr. Talat and Mr. Christofias were not just pro-settlement but also old trade-union friends and fluent in English. Cypriots on both sides, as well as the United Nations negotiators patiently trying to bring them together, have good reason to ask: if these two were unable to solve the conflict, and Mr. Talat was ejected by Turkish-Cypriot voters after 18 months of talks, what chance will anybody else have?

It would be wrong to see this as an issue of only local interest. Cyprus casts a shadow across Europe. In May 2004 the European Union foolishly admitted the (Greek-Cypriot) Republic of Cyprus even though Greek-Cypriot voters had rejected the UN’s Annan plan for unification. As a member, Cyprus has played a destructive role, undermining both the EU’s efforts to help the Turkish-Cypriots, who voted for the Annan Plan, and Turkey’s membership talks. Because Turkey is in NATO (but not the EU) and Cyprus is in the EU (but not NATO) these two organizations find it hard to work together.

In search of a solution
What should be done? It is tempting to give up trying to resolve the conflict altogether. Nobody is being killed because of the island’s division. Crossing the “green line” has become far easier in recent years. And, as the election of Mr. Eroglu suggests, de facto partition suits many on both sides. Turkey may jib at the annual subsidy, worth some $600m a year, that it has to pay the isolated north. But the Turkish army is happy to have a place to garrison and train a large number of soldiers.

Yet, however frustrating Cyprus may be, it would be wrong to abandon it. Experience suggests that the Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots will not solve their conflict alone. To leave their dispute to fester would be bad for the Turkish-Cypriots, whose unrecognized republic is denied direct trade and transport links with the world; bad for the Greek-Cypriots, who face a large Turkish army in the north and have lost territory and property; and damaging to the whole island’s economy, especially its tourist industry. Moreover, it is hard to see how Turkey can ever join the EU without a settlement in Cyprus, since it would first have to recognize the Greek-Cypriot government and abandon the Turkish-Cypriots. Indeed, France and Germany shamelessly use Cyprus as another excuse to keep Turkey out.

There are three ways to revive hopes of a Cyprus settlement. First, Turkey’s government, which pays Mr. Eroglu’s bills, must press him to restart the talks where Mr. Talat left off. This will be hard. But it will help that the uncharismatic Mr. Eroglu does not have much of a following in Turkey itself. Second, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, must find a way of talking directly to the Greek-Cypriots. This is delicate, because he cannot be seen to go behind Mr. Eroglu’s back. His best shot would be to use the good offices of Greece’s Prime Minister, George Papandreou, whom Mr. Erdogan will meet in Athens next month. A joint démarche by the Greek and Turkish governments could do much to offset the damage of Mr. Eroglu’s arrival on the scene.

However the biggest problem is not on the Turkish-Cypriot side, but the lack of pressure on the Greek-Cypriots to make concessions. Mr. Papandreou may be able to help with this as well. But an even more promising possibility is a potential initiative from Brussels.

A regulation to allow direct EU trade with northern Cyprus has been blocked by the Cypriot government ever since 2004. Now, under an obscure article of the Lisbon treaty, it is being revived in the European Parliament. If it passes, it could be approved by a majority vote of EU governments, clearing the way for the Turks to drop their refusal to open Turkish ports and airports to trade with the Greek-Cypriots. If such an EU manoeuvre were to end the economic isolation of the Turkish-Cypriots, the pressure on the Greek-Cypriots to push harder for a settlement would rise—and the long saga of the Cyprus conflict might just reach a satisfactory ending after all.

APR 22ND 2010 | FROM THE ECONOMIST PRINT EDITION